GBP/JPY defends 200-hour MA ahead of UK retail sales

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  • The 200-hour moving average (MA) has put a floor under the GBP/JPY pair in the last 24 hours. 
  • The pair, however, could find acceptance below the key average if the UK retail sales data disappoints expectations by a big margin. 

GBP/JPY’s pullback from the April 15 high of 147.00 has run out of steam at the 200-hour moving average (MA) line in the last 24 hours. 

As of writing, the JPY cross is currently trading at 145.95, representing a 0.10 percent drop on the day. Meanwhile, the 200-hour MA is currently located at 145.88. 

The pair could bounce up strongly from that key average support if the UK retail sales for March, due at 08:30 GMT, print well above the estimated month-on-month growth of 0.9 percent, signaling a bigger rebound in consumer spending from the previous month’s 0.2 percent drop. The gains could be bigger if the core retail sales also better estimates. 

That said, the 200-hour MA average support will likely be breached in a convincing manner if the consumer spending unexpectedly drops, validating the latest Reuters poll, which shows the economists expect the Bank of England to delay the rate hike to Q1, 2020 from Q4, 2019. 

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