- Sterling is holding for now, but a further slide could be just around the corner with softening data.
- Friday’s schedule is a lean affair, and the Sterling will have to rely on Dollar weakness to stay afloat.
The GBP/USD is trading near 1.3525 ahead of Friday’s European market session. The Sterling whipped aggressively in Thursday’s trading, peaking at 1.3617 before falling to a low of 1.3460 following yet another raft of disappointing economic data for the UK. The GBP caught a slight rebound heading into the overnight session after US inflation data also missed expectations, sending the US Dollar backwards slightly.
GBP/USD Forecast: Dovish outlook from Carney brings Sterling back to downward sloping channel
The Bank of England’s (BoE) Super Thursday turned out to be a fizzle, as many expected. Following several months of expectations that the UK’s central bank would be increasing interest rates this month, a string of worse-than-expected economic figures for the UK’s economy has forced the BoE to recant its hawkish stance, and interest rates were left as they are for the time being. Experts are now calling for a rate hike sometime in August or November, but that would only follow if economic conditions within the UK begin to improve significantly.
US CPI figures also missed expectations, with inflation clocking in at 2.1% versus the expected 2.2%. not a big miss, but it does show that inflation is not picking up as fast as initially thought within the US economy, and the miss has cooled off expectations of a fourth rate hike from the US Fed this year, sending the Greenback lower to end the week.
Friday is a quiet showing for the Sterling with little on the economic calendar, though the US session will be bringing trade figures with the Export and Import Price Indexes at 12:30 GMT. These are generally low-tier events, but more eyes than usual will likely be on trade-related figures as the run-up in a potential trade war between the US and China has seen little reconciliation.
GBP/USD analysis: no BOE rate hikes in the near horizon
GBP/USD levels to watch
The pair’s inability to stage a solid recovery in the face of the USD’s walkback today signals that further bearish action can be expected, and as FXStreet’s Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik noted earlier, “the pair presents a neutral-to-bearish stance for the short-term and according to the 4 hours chart, as it is developing below a flat 20 SMA, while technical indicators have bounced from their daily lows, but remain well below their midlines. The scale leans to the downside for the upcoming sessions, with a break below 1.3445 probably seeing the decline accelerating in spite of dollar’s weakness.”
Support levels: 1.3480 1.3445 1.3410
Resistance levels: 1.3520 1.3560 1.3600
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