- GBP/USD is governed by the market’s take on the BoE and Fed.
- GBP/USD bears are taking on bullish commitments at a 50% mean reversion of the daily bullish impulse.
GBP/USD is trading between a low of 1.4005 and a high of 1.4078 and lower by some 0.2% on the day as the US dollar continues to penetrate resistance from the bears.
The dollar held steady near week highs on Thursday following a very rich Consumer Price Index from the prior day that lifted US yields. US consumer prices increased by the most in nearly 12 years in April.
On the day, the US Labor Department reported higher producer prices in April, further evidence that inflation is rising in the United States.
The Producer Price Index rose 0.6% in April after surging 1.0% in March. In the 12 months through April, the PPI shot up 6.2%. That was the biggest year-on-year rise since the series was revamped in 2010 and followed a 4.2% jump in March.
The greenback is staying close to one-week highs with the market ow betting that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates sooner than the bank has forecast.
However, the US Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida said that weak job growth and strong inflation in April will not have altered any monetary policy plans at the Fed.
Meanwhile, the Bank of England’s Chief Economist Haldane’s interview with the Daily Mail was hawkish.
The UK’s vaccine rollout and easing of lockdown measures has been a support to sterling over the recent weeks.
Haldane noted that people are returning to shops and restaurants “with gusto,” and he is expecting that the unemployment rate will not go higher from here.
The central banker also expects inflation to be above 2% at year-end.
Most hawkish of all, he said that, “with the economy bouncing back, and with inflation risks on the rise, now is the time to start tightening the tap to avoid the risk of a future inflationary flood.”
As for the latest CFTC data, the net GBP position moved deeper into long territory which indicates that the futures markets are questioning whether tapering could be imminent.
GBP/USD technical analysis
As per the prior analysis, Bears backing off on the lower time frames, for now, the price has indeed melted to the downside and reached the 50% Fibo, 1.4005/10 target area.
Prior analysis, hourly chart
‘Should the price drift higher without leaving multiple bottoms on an hourly basis, there could be prospects of sellers taking back control from resistance.
Sellers would seek to break the hourly lows which would result in a bearish continuation towards the 50% mean reversion of the prior daily bullish impulse.’
Live market, hourly and daily chart
Meanwhile, from a daily perspective, there is room for a deeper test of demand to the 61.8% Fibo and prior highs which guards space to fully test the support structure of the W-formation/
A break there will open the risk of a significant downside continuation.
If the current support holds, then there are the prospects of an upside continuation.
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