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According to the latest Reuters poll of over 60 foreign exchange strategists, the British pound is expected to weaken versus the US dollar by the end of this year, undermined by the Brexit uncertainty and fears over the coronavirus pandemic.

Key findings

“The cable would be trading at $1.31 in a month compared to the $1.33 it was hovering near on Thursday it would be back at $1.34 in a year.

That is higher than the $1.31 median forecast in an August poll but highlighting the uncertainty the 12-month forecast range was wide, going from as low as $1.20 all the way up to $1.47.

A deal will be reached but the talks have been fractious and little progress has been made so at the end of November, a month before the transition period ends, sterling will be down at $1.30.

Against the euro little movement was expected. It would be worth 90.0p in a month and 89.0p again in a year.”

  • GBP/USD Price Analysis: 10-day SMA questions declines toward seven-week-old support line
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