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According to the latest Reuters poll of around 60 foreign exchange strategists, GBP/USD is likely to ease by end-2020 from current levels, in the face of Brexit uncertainty and coronavirus crisis.

Key findings

The pound would dip to $1.29 in a month and to $1.28 in three months before returning to current levels in a year’s time. It was trading around $1.31 on Wednesday.

Illustrating the murky outlook, the 12-month forecast horizon was wide – from $1.18 to $1.44.

Reuters polls since the June 2016 referendum to quit the EU have consistently said the two sides would eventually agree a free-trade deal, but talks have been troubled.

Without an agreement, trade and financial ties between the world’s fifth-largest economy and its biggest trading partner would collapse overnight, spreading havoc among markets and businesses.

Against the euro little movement was expected. One euro was worth around 90.3 pence On Wednesday, and the poll suggested it would be worth 90.0p in a month and 89.0p in a year.”

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