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  • GBP/USD wavers around intraday top following its corrective pullback from seven-week low.
  • US Treasury yields pause three-day downtrend amid vaccine, stimulus hopes.
  • Brexit jitters return over fishing, NI talks but EU-UK eye “win-win” situations on covid vaccine chatters.
  • BOE’s Haldane expects quick recovery, Governor Bailey’s concern over CPI, PMI and GDP will be the key.

GBP/USD fades corrective pullback from the multi-day low to 1.3708, up 0.07% to 1.3698 by the press time, as traders turn cautious while heading into Thursday’s London open. Although the US dollar strength could be traced for the pair’s latest weakness, hopes of the upbeat comments from BOE Governor Andrew Bailey and return of the US bond bears seem to favor the cable buyers.

With the AstraZeneca conveying 76% efficacy if its vaccine over virus variant, not to forget no identified side-effects, market sentiment improved and the US 10-year Treasury yields, coupled with the stock futures in the West, benefited from the news. Also acting as the market-positive were chatters surrounding the US government’s $3.0 trillion aid package and extension of the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) beyond the March 31 expiry.

At home, Bank of England (BOE) Chief Economic Andy Haldane followed the footprints of Governor Bailey’s latest comments expecting a quick recovery of the UK’s economy. Though, failures to secure British and Northern Irish business from Brexit seem to challenge the cable buyers.

Having failed to break the deadlock over fishing rights, the European Union (EU) single-handedly extended the limits over the bloc’s ability to catch fishes in the British waters. Not only this, Italian Members of European Parliaments (MEP) warning over the proposal to give UK’s fisherman a part of EU’s tuna quota and rejection of accepting UK checks by the Brussels’ fisherman also highlight Brexit woes.

Even so, the EU and the UK eyes to solve the problems over the covid vaccine shortage and tussles over the AstraZeneca. “The European Commission has threatened to ban exports to countries like Britain that have higher vaccination rates but do not export shots to the EU. The aim is to safeguard supplies for the bloc’s citizens as they face a third wave of the pandemic,” said Reuters.

Looking forward, BOE’s Bailey is up for a virtual speech at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) event. Given the recently downbeat UK economics, GBP/USD traders seek positive comments from Bailey to keep the latest corrective pullback. Also important will be the US GDP figures and comments from the Fed policymakers lined up during the day.

Technical analysis

Considering the sustained breakdown of 50-day SMA and an ascending support line from January 11, 2021, amid an absence of oversold RSI, the GBP/USD prices suggest further downside. Hence 100-day SMA level of 1.3622 gains the short-term sellers’ attention ahead of an upward sloping trend line from June 29, 2020, at 1.3551. Meanwhile, recovery moves should initially cross the immediate resistance line, previous support near the 1.3800 threshold, before confronting the 50-day SMA level of 1.3828.