In their weekly strategy report, analysts at Citibank, point out that even with an extension of Article 50, hard Brexit risk is still there and they see that political uncertainty may continue to restrain the pound. Their forecast GBP/USD at 1.30 in a 0-3 month period and at 1.34 in 6-12 month.
Key Quotes:
“To us, extension of Article 50 remains the highest probability outcome, which may underpin GBP mildly. Importantly though, ‘no-deal’ remains the default legal position; hence a significantly large expected depreciation in this outcome remains probable. Also, General Election risk remains high. If a Corbyn-led Government looks likely, one could also expect a new low in GBP.”
“Since the RSI has retreated to neutral levels, GBP/USD may range trade between 1.2898-1.3409”
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