GBP/USD: Politics take center stage

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson agreed to compromise on the controversial Brexit bill and sent the pound higher before the Federal Reserve boosted the dollar. Politics are set to outweigh economic figures in rocking the pound in the last full week of September, FXStreet’s analyst Yohay Elam reports.

Key quotes

“Parliament is set to approve the Internal Markets Bill during the week, and markets will focus on the EU’s response. If talks collapse, the pound would tumble, while attempts to reach a compromise would boost it.”

“BoE officials may have the chance to clarify their intentions in Westminster hearings or interviews. How determined are they to set negative rates? How close is the move? The pound may rock on any hint from Governor Andrew Bailey – who has scheduled speeches – or any other member of the Monetary Policy Committee.” 

“Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, has yet to announce what would replace – if at all – the furlough scheme which expires next month. The specter of mass UK layoffs is worrying about the nation and markets. A gradual tapering of the scheme is likely, but without details, sterling could suffer. The longer and the more generous the gradual retreat from the program is, the better for the economy and the currency.”

“Markit’s preliminary purchasing managers’ indexes for September are projected to show an ongoing recovery, with statistics for the services and the manufacturing sectors printing well above 50 points – firmly in growth territory. Any slide toward this breakeven level could show investor fear and result in a weaker pound.” 

“The Fed already announced its last pre-election decision, yet Chairman Powell may still move markets via public appearances – and so can his colleagues. Hints about expanding the bond-buying program may boost markets and weigh on the dollar, while urging elected officials to agree on fresh relief would weigh on stocks and boost the safe-haven greenback. “

“Democrats and Republicans are still playing the blame-game and don’t seem to get any closer to an accord. However, a group of moderate self-proclaimed “problem-solvers” may present a deal that the parties’ bigwigs may eventually accept. The larger and the faster a deal arrives, the better for equities and for GBP/USD. Ongoing accusations could weigh on cable.”