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  • GBP/USD is at an 11-week high, ending a two-day upward trend.
  • To push for a free trade agreement with India after Brexit, British Trade Secretary Truss meets with EU Trade Minister Sefkovik.
  • Inflation could not push the dollar up, but today’s Fed speech might.

The GBP/USD price stabilized around 1.3710 on Thursday after the sharpest rise in three weeks. The pair is looking for a catalyst for further action.

There was a noticeable rebound in the cable pair after a report of widespread post-inflation weakness in the US dollar. Recent aggressive Fed statements and the cautious sentiment ahead of Brexit talks have challenged the bulls recently.

As predicted, the US CPI rose to its highest level since 1982, rising 7.0% annually from 6.8% before. Indicators rose from 0.4% to 0.5% against the expected 0.4%, but had fallen below 0.8% previously.

St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said it “seems likely” after that US inflation data, according to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ).

The new FOMC Vice Chairman, Lael Brainard, made similar comments when she said, “Containing inflation is the Fed’s most important duty.”. The San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank’s president and CEO, Mary Daly, also announced a rate hike earlier this year.

A worsening viral condition is also challenging the GBP/USD bulls. Reports from The Independent indicate that Covid-19 infection rates in the UK climbed to an all-time high in the first week of the year, although new data shows the rate in London has dipped slightly. The news said that 4.3 million people in private households in the UK contracted Covid-19 in the seven days preceding January 6, up from 3.7 million the previous week.

As PM Boris Johnson succumbs to alcohol bugs in the early days of the pandemic, politics also plays a role in challenging GBP/USD buyers. Despite some key politicians asking for his support, the Tory leader does not concede.

Thus, the 10-year Treasury yield increases 2.5 basis points (bps) and returns to 1.755, while the 2-year bond yield increases 1.6 bps up to 0.923% at the time of publication. Furthermore, the S&P 500 futures fell 0.20% for the day after the Wall Street indices closed slightly higher.

The UK’s Brexit secretary is scheduled to receive EU vice president Maros Sefcovic at the country’s Foreign Minister’s residence on Thursday, Bloomberg reported. Liz Truss will enter the last round of talks on Northern Ireland after Brexit and has a choice: fight the European Union, which will win her Conservative Party supporters’ favor, or reach an agreement to prevent a trade war.

Bloomberg cites UK Trade Secretary Anne-Marie Trevelyan’s visit to India to negotiate a deal that would double the UK’s trade with India by 2030.

Although the news between the UK and India is unlikely to impact GBP/USD prices, worries about Truss’ Brexit career may cause prices to drop.

Along with the Brexit talks, it will be important to keep an eye on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for December and the weekly jobless claims and Fedspeak.

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GBP/USD price technical analysis: Bulls eying 1.3800

gbp/usd price

The GBP/USD price is wobbling around the multi-month highs. Three shakeout bars in the recent uptrend indicate that the bulls have a huge potential to go further up. The price may test 1.3750 ahead of 1.3800.

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On the flip side, we may see some retracement towards 1.3640 ahead of 1.3590 if the market observes profit-taking.

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