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  • GBP/USD is trading sharply bearish at the 1.3691 level ahead of the GfK Consumer Confidence data. 
  • US dollar was high on board as the DXY rose to 93.26 amid the hawkish Fed’s July meeting minutes.
  • Forex trading market participants may sell below $1.3725 to target $1.3658 and $1.3596 levels.

The GBP/USD closed at $1.3755 after reaching a high of $1.3786 and a low of $1.3727. The currency pair GBP/USD found some support and recovered a small portion of its previous day’s loss on Wednesday despite the strength of the US dollar. The GBP/USD is trading bearish ahead of the GfK Consumer Confidence data. 

If you are interested in trading GBP/USD with forex robots, check out our guide.

Quick Economic Events Review-Stronger Dollar in Play

The US dollar was high on board as the DXY rose to 93.26 after the release of the Fed’s July meeting minutes. However, the US Treasury yields on the 10-year note fell to 1.25% from their daily high of 1.30% and stopped further gains in the US dollar.

At 11:00 GMT, the Consumer Price Index in July dropped to 2.0% against the expected 2.3% on the data front. Additionally, the Core CPI from July also dropped to 1.8% against the expected 2.0% and weighed on the British Pound and limited the gains in GBP/USD. 

The PPI input surged in July to 0.8% against the projected 0.5%, and the PPI output remained flat with expectations of 0.6%. This weighed on the British Pound and stopped the bullish trend in GBP/USD. Later today, the focus will be on the Can GfK Consumer Confidence that’s coming from the UK economy. However, economists are expecting flat data. 

On the other hand, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia will be reporting the Fed Manufacturing Index that may trigger price action in the GBP/USD pair. The figures are expected to surge from 21.9 to 23.2.

Well, how can we miss the US unemployment claims data from the Department of Labor.  It’s expected to drop from 375K to 362K. Both of the events in the US are positively forecasted and considered good for the US dollar.

Optimistic US Retail Price Index Dragging GBP/USD Lower 

The Retail Price Index surged to 3.8% against the forecasted 3.6%, and the Housing Price Index surged to 13.2% against the forecasted 11.3%. Both of the events supported the British Pound and added a bullish trend to GBP/USD.

From the US side, at 17:30 GMT, the Building Permits in July rose to 1.64M against the predicted 1.61M and supported the US dollar and further capped gains in GBP/USD. In July, housing starts declined to 1.53M against the expected 1.60M, weighed on the US dollar, and added further gains to GBP/USD.

Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting Minutes Boost Dollar Demand

The minutes from the Federal Reserve revealed that many Fed officials were talking about the tapering of monetary stimulus to the economy.

Several FOMC members are inclined to start reducing economic support early next year. However, few believe that the pace of reducing bond purchases might begin in the coming months. 

The US dollar gathered strength against other currencies after the release of the meeting minutes, and, hence, the currency pair GBP/USD remained under pressure for the day.

The coronavirus situation around the British countryside was somewhat stabilized in comparison to the United States. The country reported 33,904 new cases, along with 111 deaths. About 61% of the total population has been fully vaccinated in the United Kingdom. The pace of vaccination is expected to increase further as 16 and 17-year-olds in England start receiving vaccine jabs on 23 August. This news also kept the British Pound higher. However, the pair is taking a deep dive now. Let’s find out on the technical side.

GBP/USD Price Forecast
GBP/USD – 4-Hour Chart

GBP/USD Price Forecast – Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.3726 1.3785

1.3696 1.3816

1.3666 1.3845

Pivot Point: 1.3756

GBP/USD Price Forecast – Technical Analysis: Eyes on GfK Consumer Confidence

The GBP/USD is trading sharply bearish at 1.3691 level ahead of the GfK Consumer Confidence data. On the 4-hour timeframe, the GBP/USD pair violated the upward downward channel supporting the pair at the 1.3775 level. At the moment, this same level of 1.3775 is extending resistance to the GBP/USD. 

On the 4-hour timeframe, the GBP/USD has formed a “Three Black Crows” pattern that’s likely to trigger a bearish sell-off. On the bearish side, the GBP/USD may find immediate support at 1.3658 and 1.3596 levels. 

The 50 day EMA (exponential moving average – red line) will extend an immediate hurdle at 1.3772. A bullish crossover above 50 EMA could drive the GBP/USD price towards 1.3880.

However, the bearish trend is vital as the stochastic RSI indicator has crossed below 50. It demonstrates a bearish trend in the GBP/USD pair. Therefore, the Forex trading market participants may sell below $1.3725 to target $1.3658 and $1.3596 levels. All the best!

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