Search ForexCrunch
  • GBP/USD wavers around intraday top, marks heaviest gains in over a week.
  • BOE’s Bailey follows ECB, Fed policymakers in ruling out reflation fears.
  • UK formally extends grace period for easy movement of goods between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
  • Vaccine optimism prevails ahead of US covid stimulus rollout, below 100 covid-led death favors UK’s unlock plans.

GBP/USD stays firmer while taking rounds to 1.3840, currently up 0.20% intraday, ahead of Tuesday’s London open. In doing so, the cable rises for the first time in the last five days as the US dollar eases from the multi-day top. Also favoring the bulls could vaccine, stimulus optimism as well as the UK’s planned exit from the coronavirus (COVID-19)-led lockdown.

Following its early Asian run-up to the highest since November 24, the US dollar index (DXY) eases to 92.34, down 0.05% on a day, by the press time. The greenback’s losses could be traced from the US Treasury yield’s pullback amid cautious sentiment ahead of the much-awaited $1.9 trillion covid relief package.

Recently, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi tamed hopes of witnessing the fiscal stimulus on Tuesday. On Monday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen marked optimism for the said economic relief bill to pass through the house.

At home, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) recently flashed the first upbeat economic sign as England prepares more measures to overcome the pandemic-led activity restrictions. Also on the positive side could be news from the Pfizer-BioNTech suggesting capacity to tame Brazilian covid variant in the lab study. Furthermore, a second consecutive below 100 death toll due to the COVID-19 in the UK favor the Tory government to flaunt their unlock plans.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England (BOE) Governor Andrew Bailey reiterated his cautious optimism over economic recovery while following the suit of the Fed and the ECB to placate bond bears.

Elsewhere, the UK formally announced the extension of the movement of goods between the UK and Northern Ireland on Monday even if the European Union (EU) warned not to do so single-handedly in the past.

Against this backdrop, stock futures in the UK and the US remain mildly bid with eyes on the US stimulus discussion in the American House. Also important is the vaccine and unlock developments from Britain and the rest of the world.

It’s worth mentioning that the bond bears have room to dominate as fund inflows could escalate due to the recent stimulus plans from the West, which in turn might favor the GBP/USD bears. Though, the UK’s economic optimism may help battle the downside.

Technical analysis

A clear break below an ascending support line, now resistance, from late December, amid bearish MACD favors GBP/USD sellers targeting the 50-day SMA level of 1.3766 ahead of the key support line from November 2020, at 1.3730 now. Meanwhile, a corrective pullback beyond the previous support line of 1.3840 can cross the 1.3900 threshold but the monthly peak surrounding 1.4020 will be a tough nut to break afterward.