GBP/USD to remain rangebound with expectations firmly around a Conservative win – ING

Previewing the potential impact of next week’s macroeconomic events on the GBP/USD pair, “Next week’s calendar will lack market-moving data releases, which will leave GBP being solely driven by the expectations around the elections (that are now only 20 days away),” said ING analysts.

Key quotes

“In particular, we expect any market move to be triggered either by new opinion polls or pre-electoral promises. Latest surveys indicate that the Conservatives are cementing their lead over the Labour party: the seven-day average of poll numbers suggest Tories will be able to secure 43% of the preferences, the Labour party 29% and the Lib Dems 15%.”

“In terms of the pre-election pledges, the recently-published Labour manifesto (e.g. tax hikes, nationalisation projects) has spurred fears about a negative impact on businesses if Jeremy Corbyn became the winner. Should the polls start to indicate a more balanced result, raising the chances of a Labour win, we could see some negative spill-over effect on the market. For now, with expectations firmly around a Conservative win, sterling is likely to remain rangebound.”