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  • Russian-Ukrainian trade pushes GBP/USD to 1.3000.
  • We are unlikely to see any relief for the cable from central bank decisions anytime soon.
  • Amid looming Ukrainian risks, the GBP/USD remains a sell-on-rebound trade.

The GBP/USD weekly forecast is bearish amid geopolitical jitters. However, the pair may correct higher as a pullback and BoE next week.

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As tensions escalated between the West and Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, it has been a rough week for the markets. The week was dominated by risk-averse trades as investors dumped high-yielding currencies such as the pound in favor of US dollars and gold. As we enter a busy week, the Ukraine crisis will continue to raise stagflation concerns. We will closely monitor key economic releases on both sides of the Atlantic and monetary policy announcements from the Federal Reserve (FRS) and Bank of England (BOE).

Russia-Ukraine crisis looming

Upon the weekend’s events surrounding the Russo-Ukrainian war, the GBP/USD pair lost over a large number on Monday, breaking the previous week’s downward consolidation. As Russian President Vladimir Putin refused to ease his aggression against Ukraine, safe-haven demand benefited the US dollar.

There were reports that Russia had gathered enough resources to take control of Kyiv. Meanwhile, fighting continued. Despite pressure from the West, the economic war with Russia continued. Despite the third round of negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv, Kabel found little relief, which opened a humanitarian corridor rather than a diplomatic solution to the conflict.

As a result of reports that the European Union (EU) is planning a massive bond sale to finance higher energy and defense costs, the pound accelerated its decline. It broke through the 1.3100 level on Tuesday.

Sterling’s woes have been exacerbated by the inexorable rise in oil prices, especially after it announced on Tuesday that it would cease importing Russian oil by 2022. Silvana Tenreiro, a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (BOE), warned that rising oil prices could also dampen economic activity.

Despite a market reversal midweek, the major currency rallied just below 1.3200 as investors pinned their hopes ahead of peace talks between Sergei Lavrov and his Ukrainian counterpart Dmitry Kuleba in Turkey on Thursday. However, while traders braced for peace talks, the ECB decision, and the US inflation report, this was seen as more correction.

As US inflation reached its highest level in 40 years, the ECB turned surprisingly hawkish, fueling fresh dollar gains and dampening sentiment. Risk aversion was also heightened by the failure of Moscow-Kyiv talks, which failed to produce a ceasefire and stalled risky deals earlier this week. As a result, despite the improvement in the UK economy in January, the pound remained bearish, with the spot rate approaching 1.3000.

GBP/USD key events next week

gbp/usd weekly forecast

As in the past, the focus will be on inflation and the Fed’s response to it, along with the latest retail sales data. The Bank of England aspires to become the next central bank. As inflation increases, policy rates are expected to rise. Following the ECB’s accelerated exit in its policy decision on March 10, the Bank of England may adopt a more hawkish stance.

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GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: Bearish rejection at 1.3000

gbp/usd weekly forecast

The GBP/USD daily chart shows a strong bearish scenario. The price finally broke below the 1.3100 mark this week and closed near the 1.3040 area. However, the pair may see a mild upside correction after such a prolonged bearish run. Hence, the probability of testing 1.3150-70 cannot be ruled out.

The downside continuation may attempt to break 1.3000. However, it will be stiff support to break. The pair may find a bounce back from the level.

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