GBP/USD Outlook – September 5-9

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Continuing last week’s reversal the British pound fell further against the dollar this week.  This week is very busy, with the rate decision in the limelight. Here is an outlook for this week’s events, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

Sterling lost ground as the UK reported a lower August manfacturing PMI and a decrease in housing prices, signalling a stalling economic recovery.

GBP/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

  1. Halifax HPI: Publication time unknown at the moment. This is considered one of the most accurate and highly regarded house price indices. The reason is the wide base of the data: internal mortgage numbers from HBOS. It is expected to increase 0.5%, slightly more than the previous month’s increase but still down for the year.
  2. Services PMI: Monday, 8:30. This is one of the most important indicators for the state of the British economy. The index is expected to come in at 55.4; anything below 49.9 would point to another recession.
  3. BRC Retail Sales Monitor: Monday 23:01. This indicator from BRC, is an early indicator for the official retail sales figure. An increase of 0.6% is expected, in line with the previous month.
  4. Manufacturing Production: Wednesday 10:30. Complementing the manufacturing PMI from last week, this gauge provides further insight into the state of this sector, and tends to rock the pound. It is expected to decline 0.4% for the second consecutive month. The wider industrial production figure is expected to remain unchanged.
  5. NIESR GDP Estimate: Wednesday 14:00. NIESR produces early estimates of GDP and with a track record for projections with a standard error of 0.1-0.2% point when compared to the initial estimate made by the Office for National Statistics. An increase of 0.6% is expected for the three months ending in August.
  6. Rate decision: Thursday 11. MPC members are expected to vote to hold the bank rate at 0.5% for another month. Also the Asset Purchase Facility, or QE program, isn’t likely to be altered this time. The members are still waiting for the economy to pick up or deteriorate more significantly before taking new decisions.
  7. PPI Input: Friday 8:30. A leading gauge of inflation – while volatility is high here, PPI usually provides some guidance towards the CPI, and is expected to drop by 1.6% this time.

*All times are GMT

GDP/USD Technical Analysis

The British pound/dollar began the week trading at 1.6362 but closed with the pound down against the dollar, above the 1.62 line (mentioned last week).

Technical levels, from top to bottom:

We start from the highest point in the year: 1.6750. This line had a role in the past, and can be tackled on an upwards move. Minor resistance again was found at 1.6623, which was support when the pair was trading higher and was tested recently.

1.6550 was a peak at the end of May and proved to be a strong line of resistance once again. 1.6450 is the next line of resistance. It worked as support just now, and when it broke down, the pair couldn’t come back.

1.64 is a minor line, after working as resistance for another week. 1.6280 a veteran line for the pair was a key cap for the remainder of the week. It remains of importance now.

1.62 was somewhat weaker, after the pair ran lower. It provided a more solid bottom beforehand. Further below, 1.6110 is another veteran line. It quickly turned into support before the next move higher. Yet again, its importance was seen.

Below, the round number of 1.60 was the base of the leap. 1.5940, which was a previous swing low, returns to play a role now, but a minor one. 1.5910, which was a peak many months ago, worked perfectly as support after the pair climbed back up. It is an important line now.

I remain bearish on GBP/USD.

The weakness of the British economy, as seen over and over again, leaves room for more falls.

Further reading:


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