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Looking for the latest outlook, for the current week? Check out the section: British Pound Forecast

The Pound had a volatile week which ended lower. The upcoming week should be positive with the release of Q4 GDP. It’s expected to show an end to recession. Here’s an outlook for the upcoming events in Britain and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

GBP/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:

British Pound Forecast

The past week saw another dip in unemployment, meaning that the turnaround in the job market wasn’t temporary, although the central bank isn’t impressed. Let’s start the review. The technical analysis will follow:

  1. Nationwide HPI: Publication time is unknown at the moment. The Nationwide Building Society has seen rises in house prices in the past 8 months. The pace has slowed down in recent months, and could fall now. Although not being the earliest house price report, it still has a strong impact.
  2. Prelim GDP: Published on Tuesday at 9:30. Britain is finally expected to exit the recession period. After a big disappointment in Q3 – a 0.2% contraction, the economy is now expected to grow by 0.4%. According to the unofficial NIESR GDP estimate, a growth rate of 0.3% is expected. These guys were right about the Q3 recession. An end to recession will boost the Pound. Most Western economies have exited recession in Q3, and some already in Q2 of 2009. The Pound will probably get out of its isolation.
  3. BBA Mortgage Approvals: Published on Tuesday at 9:30 GMT and overshadowed by the GDP. The British Bankers’ Association represents about two thirds of the total lending market. Since most deals of new homes are financed by mortgages, this number is of importance. Mortgage approvals reached 44.7K last month, continuing a steady rise. This trend is expected to continue, with 45.3K this time.
  4. Mervyn King talks: He will speak on Tuesday at 9:45 GMT. Just after the GDP release, Mervyn King will make a public appearance in parliament together with his deputy Paul Tucker. After dismissing the rise in inflation, King will have to address the improvement in the job market and probably the fresh growth figures. This is a volatile timing for the Pound.
  5. CBI Realized Sales: Published on Wednesday at 11:00 GMT. This survey of 160 companies usually has a good reflection of retail sales. This indexed made nice rises in the positive zone, indicating higher sales volume and rising optimism, though it stalled last month on 13 points. It’s predicted to rise to 15 points this time.
  6. GfK Consumer Confidence: Published on Friday at midnight GMT. Continuing the consumer data, GfK has a survey of 2000 consumers that has a good indication of the economic mood. This index has risen up to -13 in October, but fell down afterwards, scoring -19 points. Note that negative numbers indicate pessimism. A small rise is predicted now.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

After trading in a range of almost 400 pips, the Pound ended lower against the US dollar, closing at 1.6109, at one of the minor support lines. The lines have  slightly  changed since last week’s outlook.

1.6110 remains a minor support line while 1.6270 is a minor resistance line. The Pound has been trading in these areas for quite some time.

Looking up, I’ve marked 1.6458  as the next resistance line for the Pound. It was this week’s high. Even higher, 1.6746 is a very important resistance line, which worked many times.

Below, 1.5720 is a major resistance line that held the Pound from falling and sent it to a comeback. A big dollar storm will sent the pair towards the 1.5350 line.

I continue staying neutral on the GBP/USD.

The recent employment numbers sure keep the Pound up, and with a return to official growth, the Pound can withstand the dollar’s  strength. This isn’t enough for rises against the dollar, but it sure is good for gains against the Euro.

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