GBP/USD: Trading the British Manufacturing PMI

British  Manufacturing PMI is based on a survey of Purchasing Managers in the  manufacturing sector. Respondents are surveyed  for their  views on a wide range of business conditions, including employment, new orders, prices and inventories. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the pound.

Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for GBP/USD.

Published on Monday at 8:30 GMT.

Indicator Background

In August, Manufacturing  PMI posted a weak 45.4 points, well below the markets estimate of 48.6 points. This marked the third consecutive reading below the 50.0 line, indicating continuing contraction in the manufacturing industry. The forecast for September’s release is slightly higher, at 46.2 points.Will the index surprise the markets with a better reading than the estimate?

Sentiments and levels

GBP/USD has been marked by choppiness in July and August, as economic data out of both the UK and US continue to under-impress the markets. The increased speculation about QE intervention by the Fed  is bullish for the  pound, but trouble in Europe and weak global  opportunities could push nervous investors to the safety of the greenback. Thus the overall sentiment continues to be  neutral on GBP/USD towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 1.6060, 1.5992, 1.5930, 1.5805, 1.5750, and 1.5648.

5 Scenarios

1. Within expectations: 42.0 to 50.0: In such a case, GBP/USD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
2. Above expectations: 50.1 to 54.0: An unexpected higher reading can send the pair well above one resistance line.
3. Well above expectations: Above 54.0. The likelihood of a sharp expansion is low. Such an outcome could prop up the GBP, and a second resistance line might be broken as a result.
4. Below expectations: 38.0 to 41.9: A sharper decrease than forecast could push the pair below one support level.
5. Well below expectations: Below 38.0: A very weak reading could push downwards on the pound, and GBP/USD could break a second support level.

For more about the GBP, see the GBP/USD forecast.