The UK Claimant Count Change measures the change in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits. It provides a snapshot of the strength of the UK employment market. A reading which is better than the estimate is bullish for the pound.
Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for GBP/USD.
Published on Wednesday at 8:30 GMT.
Indicator Background
Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. Thus, the publication of employment data is highly anticipated by the markets, and an unexpected reading could affect the direction of GBP/USD.
Claimant Count Change rebounded in April with a reading of -2.4 thousand, beating expectations. The estimate for the May release stands at -0.1 thousand. Will the indicator again beat the forecast?
Sentiment and Levels
US job numbers appear to have stabilized after a dismal NFP, and market sentiment towards the US economy remains positive. In the UK, there are jitters about the EU referendum and the uncertainty over the vote will likely weigh on cable. So, the overall sentiment is neutral on GBP/USD towards this release.
Technical levels from top to bottom: 1.4562, 1.4413, 1.4297, 1.4148, 1.4036 and 1.3912.
5 Scenarios
- Within expectations: -3.0K to +3.0K: In this scenario, GBP/USD could show some slight movement, but it is likely to remain within range, not breaking any levels.
- Above expectations: -7.0K to -3.1K: A strong reading could send the pair above one resistance line.
- Well above expectations: Below -7.0K: In such a scenario the pound is likely to gain ground, and two levels of resistance could be broken.
- Below expectations: 3.1K to 7.0K: A weak reading could push the GBP/USD downward, with one support level at risk.
- Well below expectations: Above 7.0K: A very poor reading could shake confidence in the UK economy, and GBP/USD could break below two support levels.
For more on the pound, see the GBP/USD forecast.
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