The UK Claimant Count Change measures the change in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits. Along with the unemployment rate, which is released at the same time, it provides a snapshot of the UK employment situation and could affect the direction of GDP/USD.
Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for GBP/USD.
Published on Wednesday at 9:30 GMT.
Indicator Background
UK Claimant Count Change is closely monitored, as the indicator is one of the most important economic indicators. A reading which is lower than the market forecast is bullish for the pound.
The indicator improved in November, as jobless rolls dropped to 2.4 thousand. This beat the estimate of 6.2 thousand. The December estimate stands at 4.6 thousand.
Sentiment and Levels
The pound has jumped on Tuesday, after Theresa May’s speech on Brexit and strong British CPI data. This momentum could continue as investors snap up British pounds. So, the overall sentiment is bullish on GBP/USD towards this release.
Technical levels from top to bottom: 1.2540, 1.2433, 1.2311, 1.2201 and 1.2080
5 Scenarios
- Within expectations: 1.0K to +9.0K: In this scenario, GBP/USD could show some slight movement, but it is likely to remain within range, not breaking any levels.
- Above expectations: -2.0K to 0.9K: A reading close to the zero level would be a positive sign and could send the pair above one resistance level.
- Well above expectations: Below -2.0K: In this scenario, the pair could break above two resistance lines.
- Below expectations: 9.1K to 13.0K: A weak reading could push the GBP/USD downward, with one support level at risk.
- Well below expectations: Above 13.0K: A significant rise in jobless claims could result in GBP/USD dropping below two support levels.
For more on the pound, see the GBP/USD forecast.
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