The British Claimant Count Change measures the change in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits. Along with the Unemployment Rate indicator, which is released at the same time, it provides a snapshot of the employment situation and can be a market-mover for GDP/USD.
Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for GBP/USD.
Published on Wednesday at 9:30 GMT.
Indicator Background
Analysts view the data measured by the UK Claimant Count Change as extremely important, as job creation is vital for economic growth. An indicator reading which is lower than the market forecast is bullish for the pound.
The February reading came in at a disappointing 6.9K, well above the market forecast of 3.2K. The market forecast for March is little changed, at 7.0K. If the unemployment rate also posts weak numbers, we could see the pound take a hit.
Sentiment and Levels
GBP/USD has been choppy in recent trading, and this could continue while the markets wait for the dust to settle from the Greek debt crisis. So, the sentiment is neutral on GBP/USD towards this release.
Technical levels from top to bottom: 1.5750, 1.5696, 1.5629, 1.5520, 1.54, and 1.5336.
5 Scenarios
- Within expectations: 3K to 11K: In this scenario, GBP/USD could show some slight movement, but it is likely to remain within range, not breaking any levels.
- Above expectations: -1.0K to 2.9K: A reading lower than expectations would be a welcome positive sign of the health in the British economy, and could send the pair above one resistance level.
- Well above expectations: Below -1.0K: A drop in unemployment figures could trigger a rally, and two or more levels of resistance can be broken.
- Below expectations: 11.1K to 15K: A reading higher than expected could push the GBP/USD downward, with one level at risk.
- Well below expectations: Above 15K: A sharp increase in unemployment claims will hurt the pound, and GBP/USD could break two or more support levels.
For more on the pound, see the GBP/USD forecast.
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