Analysts at Danske Bank suggest that today, the April German Ifo data will give us the first indications of where German Q2 GDP growth is headed – indeed the Ifo is typically a more reliable leading indicator of GDP than the PMIs.
Key Quotes
“In contrast to the weak data points from manufacturing PMIs, the German Ifo showed its first rebound in March since August 2018. Will that be confirmed this month?”
“Bank of Canada is widely expected to leave policy rates unchanged at today’s monetary policy meeting. Consequently focus will be on the central bank’s new monetary policy report, rhetoric and not least any signals on the possibility of rate cuts amid markets now pricing roughly a 2/3 probability of a rate cut over the coming 12M. We don’t think BoC will deliver much to the doves today. Given the rise in oil prices, the positive inflation surprises and recent strong labour market reports we think BoC will re-iterate its ‘on hold’ and data dependency stance, and even maintain its modest tightening bias.”
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