Analysts at TD Securities are looking for Germany’s manufacturing PMI to fall another 1pt lower in August to 42.2 (market 43.0), which would be a new post-GFC low, as the trough during the Eurozone crisis was 43.0 in July 2012 (the month of Draghi’s “whatever it takes” moment).
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“The services sector in general should hold up better, as it’s less exposed to the downside from global trade tensions. We look for the French services PMI to slip to 51.8 (mkt 52.5).”
“We also have the ECB minutes at 12:30pm BST today, which may give us some further colour around the ECB’s policy discussions at last month’s meeting. However, in the July Q&A, Draghi did say that the Governing Council did not discuss rate cuts or other specifics (size of rate cut, PSPP limits) at that meeting, so we’re unlikely to get as much detail as we would like.”
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