Germany: HICP inflation to remain at 1.9% y-o-y in September – Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect the first reading of German HICP inflation to remain at 1.9% y-o-y in September, unchanged from August.

Key Quotes

“For September core inflation, we expect a fall to 0.9% y-o-y from 1.1% in August. Though energy prices should drive up headline inflation, we believe a drop in the volatile components should weigh on the core HICP.”

“At the euro area level, we forecast the first reading of HICP inflation to increase to 2.1% y-o-y in September, compared with 2.0% in August thanks to support from rising energy prices. We expect core HICP inflation to remain at 1.0% y-o-y in September, unchanged from August (because of our forecast for large rises in core inflation in smaller euro area countries offsetting Germany’s expected fall).”