Analysts at TD Securities note that Germany’s August ZEW data was simply horrific, with current conditions falling from -1.1 to -13.5 (mkt -6.3), and expectations from -24.5 to -44.1 (mkt -28.0), even worse than our below-consensus forecasts.
Key Quotes
“Current conditions have fallen below their EZ crisis low of +3.2, although are still miles away from the financial crisis low of -92.8. Expectations still have some ways to go to match the EZ crisis low of -55.2, and are even further from the financial crisis low of -63.9.”
“The ZEW institute said that today’s downside came from the US-China trade dispute, the risk of competitive devaluation, and the increased likelihood of a no-deal Brexit, all of which will likely put further strain on German exports and IP going forward.”
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