Carsten Brzeski, Chief Economist at ING, notes that the Germany’s most prominent leading indicator just added more uncertainty to the growth outlook as the Ifo index dropped for the third consecutive month in November to 102.0, from 102.8 in October.
Key Quotes
“Both the current assessment and the expectations components lost further momentum in November.”
“The disappointing third quarter performance was a combination of too many one-off factors but also some structural impediments. How much of the slowdown can be attributed to each single factor, however, remains still unclear. Therefore, the outlook for the German economy has also become more uncertain.”
“For now, strong domestic fundamentals, the weak euro and some (temporary) relief from possible external shock factors like Brexit and trade all bode well for a rebound of the German economy going into 2019.”
“Today’s Ifo index suggests that a swift and strong rebound is becoming increasingly unlikely and leaves analysts and experts still groping in the dark.”
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