Germany: Industrial production sending more positive signals for the economy – ING

Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING, notes that the German industrial production increased by 0.5% month-on-month in March, sending more positive signals for the German economy.

Key Quotes

“On the year, industrial production was still down by 0.9%. The strongest increase came from the production of consumer goods (1.1% MoM). The construction sector continued its recent boom, increasing by 1.0% MoM, from the strong 4.0% MoM in February.”

“Contrary to common belief, German industry is currently better than it’s perceived to be. In fact, industrial production has been growing for four months in a row.”

“Looking ahead, industrial orders, particularly export orders, stabilised somewhat in March, unfortunately on the back of stronger bulk orders. Clearly, this is too little to give anything like an all-clear for industrial production in the months ahead.”

“Today’s industrial production data confirms our view of   – at least to some – a surprisingly strong GDP growth performance in the first quarter. Despite many rather pessimistic headlines on the German economy and a series of downward revisions of 2019 growth, the first quarter might actually surprise to the upside.”