Germany: Q2 GDP details hint a “technical” but no “severe recession” – Deutsche Bank

According to Deutsche Bank’s analysis team, today’s 2nd release confirmed the preliminary reading of the German Q2 GDP growth of -0.1% qoq and corrected for the lower number of working days it was up 0.4% while domestic demand rose a healthy 0.5% qoq.

Key Quotes

“Net trade subtracted a 0.5 pp from Q2 GDP growth with exports falling a hefty 1.3% qoq while imports decreased by 0.3% qoq.”

“Capex investment picked up by 0.6% qoq (Q1: 1.4%) while construction investments were down 1.0% qoq (Q1: 2.5%), partly a payback for the weather-related surge in Q1.”

“In H1 the German government sector recorded a surplus of EUR 45.3 bn (or 2.7% of GDP). That said, it is important to note that these figures are preliminary and have only limited informative value for the overall 2019 budget results.”

“Yesterday’s sharper than expected drop in the ifo climate index was part of a row of negative sentiment and hard data, particularly for manufacturing. This supports our expectation that GDP will shrink by around ¼% qoq in Q3, pushing the German economy into a “technical recession”.”