Carsten Brzeski – Chief Economist at ING Germany, offered his take on Monday’s German industrial production figures and said that the data sent tentative signs of life in May. The rebound in industrial production suggested that the economy is not falling off a cliff, though the relief is too feeble to justify any optimism.
“The fact that German industry has not fallen off a cliff unfortunately does not mean that any rebound is in the cards in the near term. The order book deflation, as well as inventory build-up, is a strong warning against too much optimism. Even worse, today’s industrial data suggests that, at least for the second quarter, the German economy is running out of powerful growth engines. For the European Central Bank, today’s data will not yet flip the coin on whether to deliver a pre-emptive rate cut at the July meeting. The data was not bad enough to panic but definitely not good enough to lean back and enjoy the summer.”