In their latest report released on Monday, IHS Markit economists Nariman Behravesh and Sara Johnson predicted the global economic output will take about two to three years to return to the pre-coronavirus pandemic levels.
Key points
“The fastest we can expect output in key economies to return to pre-pandemic levels is early 2022. The exception is China where the infections occurred earlier and recovery is now underway. In many economies, the recovery could be even more prolonged.
Looking at a 5.5% fall in real global GDP this year. Such a contraction will be more than thrice that during the 2009 Global Financial Crisis (GFC).
Expect the US economy to plummet by as much as 36.5% in 2Q20 ending in June, as parts of its economy has been locked down to curb the spread of the novel coronavirus.
it is difficult to predict the depth of the recession that is panning out.
Expect the world to “inch toward normalcy over the coming year” based on assumptions that new global infections will peak by late summer, a vaccine will become available in late 2021 or early 2022 and lockdowns will be eased throughout summer.
A tidal wave of bankruptcies among small and large industries will make restarting the manufacturing sector more challenging than in typical recoveries. Moreover, the damage to the finances of households and businesses will substantially delay any return to old spending levels.”
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