According to analysts at Mizuho Bank, despite the ongoing expansion, the global economy is maturing. They warn about the potential impact of trade frictions.
Key Quotes:
“The global economy is forecast to remain on an expansion track in 2018 and continue to follow firm footing in 2019. However, as the economy is maturing, the growth momentum will gradually moderate due to the slowdown of the Chinese economy and peak-out of the IT cycle.”
“Even though the global economy picked up from the soft patch in the Jan-Mar quarter, the global economy lacks momentum with the exception of the US economy, as evidenced by the slowdown of the Eurozone and Chinese economies in the Apr-Jun quarter.”
“The escalation of trade friction, the spread of concerns regarding the emerging market (EM) economies, Middle East tensions, and the rise of crude oil prices pose risks to global growth.”
“Should US-China trade frictions escalate, it would serve as negative pressures not only upon the US and China but upon the global economy as well.”
“Concerns regarding the EM economies will spread to China – which is a direct party in trade friction – and the neighboring countries of Asia, reflecting US-China trade friction. In certain countries such as Turkey, capital outflows and currency weakening are spreading to financial problems.”
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