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Analysts at Goldman Sachs believe that the global economy has likely bottomed, as the coronavirus lockdown measures seem to be playing out well.

Key quotes

“Think economic activity has likely bottomed.

Lockdowns and social-distancing restrictions are beginning to be wound back across the globe.

Estimate that global GDP down around 16% since January.

Now forecast a recovery.

We expect GDP to grow … as firms and households learn to combine higher economic activity with continued virus control via a range of adjustment mechanisms including mask and glove wearing, frequent cleanings of workplaces, lower office and retail occupancy, and improved testing and contact tracing.

We forecast quarter-on-quarter annualized GDP growth rates averaging -32% in Q2, +16% in Q3, and +13% in Q4 across the advanced economies.”