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According to analysts at NAB, global growth appears to have remained above average through the first half of 2018, but with NAB’s leading indicator pointing to a moderation in coming quarters, they think that this will represent the peak for this cycle.

Key Quotes

“As a result we expect global growth to reach 3.8% in 2018 and then to ease over 2019 (3.7%) and 2020 (3.5%). After hitting a soft patch in Q1, major advanced economy growth rebounded in Q2. Industrial indicators in emerging market (EM) economies are mixed and risk concerns are elevated as some EM financial markets have come under strong pressure, most notably Turkey recently, with some contagion to other EMs. A gradual tightening in advanced economy monetary policy settings is underway.”