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The ANZ Global Lead Index (GLI) and Growth Trackers suggest momentum has passed a peak as headwinds are building, notes the research team at ANZ.

Key Quotes

“Avoiding a trade war is essential to our outlook for solid growth.”

“Although cyclical pressures continue to build, there are scant signs of it manifesting itself into a pickup in core inflation.  Higher oil prices will feed through into  higher headline inflation, but the second round effects are likely limited.”

“Financial conditions remain accommodative. We expect the Fed to continue on its path of gradual normalisation. Elsewhere we expect central banks to adopt a more cautious approach to policy settings, with normalisation the likely objective at some point.”