According to Greg Gibbs, analyst at Amplifying Global FX Capital, the slump in the global manufacturing PMIs is broad-based in major economies and alarming in Japan, Korea and Taiwan, appears to reflect a disruption in global trade that may relate to US tariff policy.
“Services PMIs, on the other hand, are relatively stable and have recovered recently, and may help the global economy avoid a recession. India’s PMIs have been relatively strong and may account for solid Indian currency and equity market performance.”
“The slump in the global manufacturing PMI is at odds with stronger global equities and commodity prices this year. The market appears to be building confidence that the US-China trade dispute will be resolved, and the Chinese stimulus and a patient Fed will combine to revive manufacturing PMIs is coming months.”