What’s going on in the old continent? We begin from the ECB’s headquarters and tour around the continent and its troubles before taking a step back to look at markets in general and the upcoming events.
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- Frankfurt: In the euro-tower they must be scratching their heads. Haven’t they done enough? Inflation remain low, the euro doesn’t fall and governments are not doing enough. Nevertheless, the ECB has made it clear they haven’t reached their lower bound. Their recent measures still need to play out. We touch many aspects.
- UK – Brexit backfire: A British exit of the EU is also problematic for the EU. The recent implication of PM Cameron with the Panama Papers could weigh on the euro as well: looking at the Dutch vote about Ukraine is telling.
- Spain: 4 months and still no government in Madrid. Adding the Catalan issues and deflation things look bad, but hope comes from an unexpected direction. Is it time to buy when there’s blood on the streets?
- Italian budgets and banks: The third largest country is lifting its head against austerity but certainly suffers significant banking issues.
- Germany and Immigration: Security can close borders but also trigger higher budgets. Accommodating for migrants provides cheap labor and also stimulus – a tree for the fiscal hawks to climb down from.
- Panama Papers: From Putin on the edge of Europe, through Cameron in the UK and lots more is coming.
- Something in the air: We move to talk about wider markets and the wait for the crash: TBTF, froth, the chance of recession, etc.
- Bankruptcies in the US oil sector?: This is the season.
- Preview: Chinese GDP, a focus on the US consumer and two rate decisions dot the calendar.
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