Gold Forecast: Consolidating Losses Below $1735, Bears to Hold Strong

• Gold prices attempt to correct higher after plummeting to YTD lows on Monday.
• Stronger NFP print triggered heavy selling in gold.
• US trillion-dollar infrastructure bill and CPI figures can provide fresh impetus to the market.

The forecast for gold price is mildly bearish on Tuesday. The strength of the dollar following the release of Friday’s NFP caused gold prices to plummet Monday. XAU/USD has flattened from daily swing lows above $1,740 and rallied during the Asian session, though the pair have not yet come out of the crisis.

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The biggest drop occurred on Monday following Friday’s labor market report that was significantly above the market estimate of 845,000, translating into 943,000 jobs for the US economy. The unemployment rate was said to be 5.7%, but it ended up being 5.4%. Based on the indicators, the US Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates earlier than expected. An inverse relationship between interest rates and gold prices is implied by higher rates. Due to investors’ skepticism about riskier assets, concern over the delta spread limits the downside. Dollar-denominated precious metals prices remained negatively impacted by the higher dollar value.

After four consecutive days of losses, gold turns positive again, consolidating the previous recovery from a five-month low of $ 1,688. Taking a moment to breathe, the bears allow a small jump above $ 1,700. Tuesday’s Senate vote on a trillion-dollar infrastructure bill may boost gold prices. Nevertheless, another uptrend seems unlikely as the US dollar continues to be pushed towards Treasury yields by the Fed’s lower expectations. The upbeat July NFP report and Fedspeak suggested the Fed would have a hawkish stance. The US CPI report, which will be released later this week, will provide fresh impetus for gold trading.

Gold price technical forecast: Key spots to watch

The gold price is trying to recover moderately from its five-month low of $1,688, around $1,735 at the moment. However, in March, a solid break below the small double bottom at $1,677 remains possible as XAU/USD follows the support band at $ 1637-1618.

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If the commodity declines below the $1,725 level, the outlook becomes negative, and the price could fall as low as $1,700. As a result, we expect future sales to lead to the $ 1,677-76 range being challenged as a YTD low.

Currently, the breakout points at $1,750-60 appear to pose immediate strong resistance. Another retracement attempt near the $ 1,780 area is more likely to hit fresh selling and dry up quickly. It is now the main hub for short-term traders and limits the XAU / USD exchange rate.

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