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  • Gold stays range bound and stable on the FOMC minutes.
  • A couple policymakers would have preferred a 50 bp cut to address low inflation.

Gold prices are trapped between the recent 13th august highs and lows of the $1,530s and $1,479s, unfazed by the as expected Federal Open Market Committee minutes which did little to sway the market’s opinion that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again, likely as soon as the next meeting around in September.  

FOMC minutes highlights:

  • Participants said forward guidance and QE might not be enough to eliminate protracted risks at lower bound.
  • Several said uncertainties remained about the efficacy of QE.*
  • A number of Fed officials stressed need for Fed flexibility.
  • A couple policymakers would have preferred a 50 bp cut to address low inflation.
  • Several favored maintaining rates unchanged.
  • Those who favored cut pointed to decelerating economy, elevated risks on global economy and inflation.
  • A few policymakers expressed concern of 3m/10y yield curve inversion.

Indeed, the flashes of an inversion between the 2-10y curve increased calls for further cuts from the Federal Reserve, but, on the other hand, the US economy is not doing that bad and recent data has been a testimony to that – The consumer is still healthy and price indexes have come out on the hot side. indeed,  the committee is divided on the outlook for rates. The impact of weak global growth and trade uncertainty on the US remains just as uncertain which means all the focus from here will turn to the Jackson Hole and economic data between now and the next Federal Reserve interest decision. Specifically, for the price of gold, the summer run is losing steam and another geopolitical event is likely required or a collapse in the Dollar to see high levels at this juncture.  

Gold levels