Gold Outlook: Bulls Aiming to Break $1,850 amid Risk-off Sentiment

• Gold’s safe-haven appeal is drawing bulls toward its $1,850 target.
• The risk of $1,870 will be exposed to a bid above previous daily highs of $1,850.
• Market participants are eying at FOMC for fresh stimulus.

Safe-haven buying boosted gold outlook on Monday. In the New York session, the precious metal rose to a high of $1,844 and started Tokyo under pressure at around $1,842.

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Market drivers remain geopolitical ahead of last week’s Federal Reserve meeting. In spite of growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve will raise rates faster than previously expected, investors are turning to gold as a safe haven.

ANZ Bank analysts report that gold-backed ETF inflows are increasing. By weight, SPDR Gold Shares added 27.6 tons. It was the largest net inflow in dollars since 2004.

The price of gold rose on Monday as a Wall Street sell-off fueled by geopolitical tensions in Ukraine boosted demand for the precious metal. The US gold futures contract rose 0.5% to $1,841.70 after NATO announced its forces on alert in response to a Russian military buildup near the Ukrainian border. However, NATO’s actions have been condemned by Russia as an escalation of tensions.

As measured by the DXY index, Monday, the US dollar hit a two-week high against a basket of currencies. During the US session, the dollar index gained 0.67% to 96.12. The US dollar tends to work in periods of low risk and small yield advantage. Additionally, it should outperform currencies like the Swiss franc and the yen if tensions escalate.

Accordingly, some US troops stationed in Western Europe may be moved to Eastern Europe as part of the fight against Russia, and US President Joe Biden has ordered families of diplomats to leave Kyiv.

FOMC in spotlight

Before this week’s rate decision has a hawkish outcome, the US Dollar Index has increased around 1.5% since Jan. 14. This is because several banks raised their forecasts for the pace and magnitude of Fed tightening.

In March, most expect the first hike to 0.25% and three more to 1.0% by the end of the year. The Fed has already signaled it will raise rates in March, but traders will be watching this announcement to see how quickly it will deleverage its balance sheet of over $8 trillion in Treasury and mortgage debt.

Gold price technical outlook: Bulls shy of swing high

The gold price remains above the 20-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, with a shakeout bar overshadowing the upthrust bar. The volume of the shakeout bar is also exceeding the volume of upthrust. It indicates strong bullish momentum. However, the price is still shy of swing highs at $1,847.

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The average daily range is 21% at the moment, which is normal. Alternatively, falling below the 20-period SMA may trigger a reversal towards $1,834 ahead of $1,815.

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