Gold Price Analysis: Bulls looking to the dollar to give back some ground

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  • Gold is on the verge of a major run to the downside on the long term charts.
  • The US dollar is stalling and could give some meanwhile room to the upside for gold.

The price of gold is currently trading at $1,868.30 between $1,867.51 and $1,871.37 following a session in North America where the precious metal managed a bid from a low of $1,847.90 to a session high of $1,877.03.

Gold’s bullish case has been challenged by the broad dollar’s gains of late which have catalyzed an aggressive positioning squeeze in the yellow metal.

To date, there have been a number of fundamentals going for the US dollar, including the Justice Ginsberg’s passing and its implications for a Phase 4 deal, election uncertainty and the global spread of the coronavirus. 

The US dollar, however, has stalled in its impulse and could be destined to a downside correction which should give the yellow metal some gas, (see the technical analysis below).

We reiterate that while weak price action is depressing sentiment for gold bugs, the pullback is unlikely to turn into a rout — the secular bull market is intact, as long-term inflation expectations will likely continue to rise post-election, particularly if a fiscal deal can be agreed upon in the US,

analysts at TD Securities argued.

Notwithstanding, high cross-asset correlations and a bloated positioning slate are punishing the late-longs in the yellow metal, which is trading nearly tick-for-tick with the broad dollar index. 

Looking to US dollar the technicals, however, there could be some good news for the bulls ahead, if only monetarily. 

Gold and DXY technical analysis

In yesterday’s analysis, above, the dollar was expected to stall in 5-wave pattern forecast.

So far so good:

This could give rise to a short term recovery in gold if the 5-wave USD analysis is correct.

If the dollar picks up liquidity again and rallies, then the precious metal will have a hard time sustaining its bid. 

DXY long-term chart analysis

Gold looking down the abyss

Daily gold chart, resistance ahead

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs

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