Gold Price Analysis: Dovish Fed Helping Bulls Stay Above $1816

Gold Price Analysis: Dovish Fed Helping Bulls Stay Above $1816

  • Gold retraced a little after posting gains at $1833.
  • Fed’s dovish stance keeps the gold bulls alive.
  • COVID concerns are keeping the safe-haven appeal of the gold intact.

Gold price touched $ 1,833, after which it fell $10 even though the US Treasuries rose in value, which led to a decrease in the yields on 10-year bonds to 1.32% per annum.

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According to the core CPI, consumer price inflation last month peaked in 3 decades at 4.6%.

“These strong numbers are backed by a fairly narrow range of factors,” said Fed Chair Jerome Powell, defending the Fed’s zero-rate policy and massive quantitative easing from a string of heated comments from Republicans and Democrats.

The market is much less afraid of a rate hike. The yield curve and price movement imply there is no tantrum (quite the opposite).

However, against this background, physical demand/support has been lowered from tailwind to neutral, given that the price has risen by $50 since the end of June.

The price of gold in China rose to a 4-week high of 380 yuan a gram, but a discount to global gold quotes was $2.30 an ounce after the average premium was $3.60 this month.

Indonesia becomes Asia’s new COVID-19 epicentre. However, due to a shortage of vaccines, 70% of the South Korean population, 85% of the Thai population and 95% of the Vietnamese population still expect their first vaccination.

The World Bank said that excluding China, GDP in East Asia and the Pacific will grow by only 4.0% this year. The bank has cut its economic forecasts for the region because it is still far from lifting all restrictions.

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Meanwhile, Germany’s Dax stock index lost 0.9%. Spain’s Ibex35 Index also fell sharply as regional governments began reimposing curfews and restrictions against the wave of the COVID-19 Delta strain.

Gold price technical forecast: Sweet spots to eye

The 4-hour chart of gold shows that the up bar with a very high volume above the broken key support of $1816. The following down bars have a very narrow spread with nominal volume. Technically, Gold remains strongly bullish, supported by the key 20-SMA on the chart.

Gold price on 4-hour chart
Gold price on 4-hour chart

Gold trading scenario

You can open a long position above $1833 with a stop-loss of around $1816. Alternatively, if the price break below the $1800 level, you can open a short position with a stop-loss of around $1816.

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Saqib Iqbal

Saqib Iqbal

Saqib Iqbal is a market analyst, prop fund trader and mentor, serving the industry with his analysis and educational content since 2011. The author has great exposure to different financial markets and institutions. He's well-known for his day trading reviews and multiple timeframe analysis.