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  • The US dollar has driven prices in the precious metals market lower.
  • The move in gold gives rise to a potential sell limit trade setup offering 1:3 risk to reward ratio. 

Gold prices have fallen below a daily support structure like a knife through butter.

The price has met what appears to be a supporting trendline and prior structure. With a focus on the downside, bears should be looking for a discount from which to enter a swing-trading position. 

The following is a top-down analysis that illustrates how an optimal entry point can be found on the daily and 4-hour time frame to target the 1825/34 area. 

Monthly bearish correction to a 38.2% Fib retracement

Following months of upside, the market is finally correcting as investors pull their bids and take profit before the next presumed reflation-fuelled-rally subsequent of a large-scale fiscal deal from the White House.

However, in the meantime, there is still room to the downside if the following Fibonacci and wave analysis is correct.

Weekly impulse in the making 

The weekly chart shows that the bears have taken over at resistance and the price would be expected to drop to at least a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the monthly rally. 

This would equate to the third wave of the recent drop (wave 1) and correction to a 61.6% Fib (wave 2). 

Daily chart/new resistance

The daily chart shows that the price has been rejected at the weekly resistance and the 61.8% Fibonacci confluence. 

Given the weekly and monthly bearish outlooks and the firm resistance, the focus is on the downside towards the monthly 38.2% Fib target. 

However, to improve the entry and risk to reward ratio, bears would be prudent to wait for a re-test of the nearest and last formed structure.

If the US dollar corrects lower, gold would be expected to pick up some bucks along the way to the structure. 

DXY Reverse H&S in the making

The following chart shows that the DXY could be in the process of forming a reverse head and shoulders. 

In doing so, the dollar needs to correct lower which would rhyme with the prospects of gold to retest the aforementioned structure for a discount to sell on a limit order:

Sell limit setup, 1:3 R/R

The above scenario illustrates how a sell limit order placed strategically at prior support, expected to act as resistance, offers a discount in seeking out a profit target in the 1825/34 area. 

This particular setup offers a 1:3 risk to reward ratio with the stop loss placed above the structure. 

The stop loss can be moved to breakeven as soon as new resistance structure is formed on the 4-hour chart on the way towards the monthly target area.