Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD bulls struggling to retake controls above $1,950

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  • Gold prices stretch post-Fed pullback from $1,952.86 as risk-tone recovers.
  • Fed’s mildly hawkish signal fails to disappoint equities for long as vaccine hopes, American stimulus expectations jump over.
  • A busy Asian session with data from Australia and New Zealand, coupled with the BOJ, can keep gold mostly firm.

Gold picks up the bids near $1,960 during the pre-Tokyo open Asian trading on Thursday. The yellow metal marked gains the previous day despite posting losses after the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision. The reason could be traced from the market’s optimism surrounding the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine, as well as expectations US stimulus, ahead of the key day.

A long day ahead…

Having shrugged off the Fed-led moves, mostly favoring the US dollar and against equities, global markets are gearing up for the key day including many data/events. Be it the immediate New Zealand GDP for the second quarter (Q2) or the Australia employment figures for August, not to forget the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) monetary policy meeting, everything important to watch during Thursday’s Asian session.

The Federal Reserve remains mostly ready to pump the markets as long as needed while staying ready to wait for a jump above 2.0% inflation based on the recent Average Inflation Targeting (AIT) method. Even so, the policymaker’s upwardly revised economic forecasts and hints of no immediate need to act lured the greenback bulls. The same disappointed global equities and propelled bonds.

Following the news, Wall Street marked a mixed closing with Nasdaq down over 1.0% and S&P 500 also printed mild losses. Though, the US 10-year Treasury yields ended the Wednesday with two basis points (bps) of gains to 0.699%.

After the Fed-led drama, US President Donald Trump reiterated the promise to deliver vaccine sooner while also disliking the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) verdict favoring China. The Republican leader also hinted the nearness to the US stimulus package despite the opposition Democratic Party flashing no signs of breaking the deadlock. Even so, S&P 500 Futures gain 0.13% by the press time.

Given the long list of catalysts on the economic calendar, coupled with the recently downbeat US Retail Sales, Gold prices may firm-up as traders generally jump on the bullion during uncertain times. However, the US dollar performance will be crucial to watch.

Technical analysis

Sustained trading beyond $1,965, comprising a falling trend line from August 18, becomes necessary for gold prices to aim for the monthly top near $1,992. Until then, a 21-day SMA level of $1,945.70/65 can limit the metal’s immediate downside.

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