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Gold has been hovering around $1,870, extending its recovery. The yellow metal tends to outperform when economic data is weakening, and underperforms when economic prospects improve. Now that there have been numerous data disappointments, forecasters will likely extend projections still lower. Subsequently, Bart Melek, Head of Commodity Strategy, believes XAU/USD is likely to near the $1,900 level.

The data expectation cycle and gold are so happy together

“As the data starts to follow a downward trajectory again and the market enters the corrective part of the data cycle, yields should be held down and the USD may be under pressure.”  

“Given that the Fed still has an aggressive full employment mandate, inflation expectations may do what they did when data was beating expectations, but in reverse – dropping less than yields. Low real yields should send gold higher again.”  

“Given gold broke through the 200-DMA ($1,846/oz), technicians and other money managers may grow exposure. As such, gold may well move within striking distance of our $1,900+/oz target, should US economic data continue to disappoint.”