- Investors’ focus will remain on the US prelim GDP, unemployment claims, and the Jackson Hole Symposium.
- The gold price forecast remains bearish below upward trendline support becoming a resistance level of 1,795.
- Forex trading market participants may sell below the $1,795 level to target the $1,780 and 1,776 levels.
Gold prices closed at $1793.25 after reaching a high of $1804.75 and a low of $1784.30. Gold extended its decline for the second consecutive session and closed the day below the $1800 level. The gold price forecast remains bearish below the upward trendline support becomes the resistance level of 1,795.
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The market sentiment remains the same, where investors were continuously waiting for some cues on the timeline of monetary tapering by the Federal Reserve at the Jackson Hole symposium this week. Apart from this, investors were also taking profit after significant gains, which might have lowered bullion prices for the trading session. Furthermore, there was a slight recovery in the US dollar on Wednesday; though prices closed red, the greenback remained on the upside during most of the day. Better-than-expected macroeconomic data underpinned the dollar.
Economic Data Review
On the data front, at 17:30 GMT, the Core Durable Goods Orders from July surged to 0.7% against the forecasted 0.5%. It added support to the US dollar and added to the loss of precious metals. In July, the Durable Goods Orders also advanced to -0.1% against the predicted -0.3%.
The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback’s value against the basket of six major currencies, slipped on Wednesday for the 3rd consecutive session. Thus, it reached the 92.82 level after rising to 93.12 during early trading hours.
The US Treasury Yield on a 10-year note surged on Wednesday to its 10-day highest level at 1.352%. Eventually, it supported the US dollar, and further pressure was added on gold metal prices.
FED of Kansas City to arrange the Jackson Hole Symposium
The neutral market sentiment could be associated with the main driver of this week’s Jackson Hole symposium. People were strongly expecting the central bank of the United States to start tapering before the end of this year. However, the macroeconomic data throughout this month suggested otherwise.
The varied situations led to increased uncertainty in the market in favor of gold. Therefore, the prevailing risk-off market sentiment weighed on gold, and the precious metals suffered throughout the week.
The same was the case with the US dollar, as at first, it gained some strength on the back of high hopes that the Fed might announce tapering at the symposium. As a result, it reached its 9-month highest level.
The gains were lost when the economic data from the country started showing a slow-down in economic recovery amid the rising spread of the Delta variant. The US dollar started declining ahead of the symposium on the back of diminishing hopes for tapering announcements by the Fed.
Fed chairperson Jerome Powel to speak at the symposium
The Fed chairperson, Jerome Powell, will give a speech at the Fed’s symposium on Friday this week. It will be done online as the virus cases are surging. The speech is expected to shed more light on the timeline for withdrawing stimulus, whereas many investors were still betting on a less dovish stance.
Coronavirus fear underpins gold’s safe-haven demand.
The rising spread of coronavirus and the worries that it will slow the economic recovery kept the safe-haven appeal active in the market and prevented further gold prices.
The Office for National Statistics in the UK issued a report which suggested that coronavirus was the 9th biggest cause of death in England in July. It improved in rank from the 26th most common cause of death in June and raised concerns regarding economic recovery.
The weekly data revealed that the UK faced its highest weekly death average last week, increasing 6.7% to 652 deaths. The numbers showed that it was the week with the highest registered deaths in the UK since March. At the same time, the country recorded 800 fatalities throughout the week.
On the other hand, a new assessment report made by the US intelligence agency regarding the origin of COVID-19 was delivered to the White House. The report suggested no definitive conclusion on whether the new coronavirus came naturally or was a slab leak. The tentative conclusion was blamed on China by two senior US officials who said that there was a lack of detailed information from China.
Gold Price Forecast – Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1783.45 1803.90
1773.65 1814.55
1763.00 1824.35
Pivot Point: 1794.10
Gold Price Forecast – Daily Technical Analysis: Upward Trendline Breakout
The gold price forecast remains bearish below the upward trendline support becomes the resistance level of 1,795. On the 4-hourly timeframe, the downward trendline extended support at the 1795.05 level. However, the closing of candles below this level confirms a bearish breakout of a triangle pattern. Therefore, the bearish bias dominated on Thursday.
On the bullish side, the resistance stays at the 1,795 level, and a bullish breakout of this level could extend the buying trend to the 1,801 and 1,815 levels. Alternatively, the selling trend dominates below the 1,795 resistance level.
On the bearish side, the support stays at 1,784 and 1,776 levels. Moreover, the breakout of the triple bottom at 1,776 could trigger sharp selling until 1,765.
The 50 day EMA (exponential moving average – red line) holds at the $1795 level, supporting gold’s bearish trend. Moreover, the leading indicator, Stochastic RSI, stays below 50, keeping the bearish trend ahead of US prelim GDP, unemployment claims, and the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Therefore, the Forex trading market participants may sell below the $1,795 level to target the $1,780 and 1,776 levels. Alternatively, buying trades can be seen above the $1,775 level today. All the best!
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