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  • The gold price rose yesterday amid the weaker Dollar.
  • Fed Chair Power reiterated the need for an accommodative monetary policy.
  • Further weakening of the US Dollar can support the gold rally.
  • The gold price has a stiff resistance at the 200-day moving average.

During the trading session on Wednesday, the gold price rallied and broke above the 50-day EMA. This can rightfully be considered a bullish sign, and now the attempt to rise higher is only a matter of time.

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During his speech yesterday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said, “inflation has risen markedly and is likely to remain high in the coming months before falling.”

Currently, the Private Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index stands at 3.4%, well above the current target of the Federal Reserve. But, even more worrisome, the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.9% last month, bringing the 12-month annualized inflation rate to 5.4% in June.

While the Fed admits it did not anticipate a similar rise in inflation, it insists that inflationary pressures are largely temporary. The Fed predicts the PCE will fall to 2.1% in 2022 and 2.2% in 2023.

Given these expectations, Powell noted that it is “premature to act” to combat inflation, which, after all, should be temporary, would be a “mistake” on the part of the Fed. This means that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current loose monetary policy and monthly asset purchases totaling $120 billion. They will also support the fund rate from zero to 25 basis points (0.25%).

This is why gold reacted so strongly to the news, adding $18.70. As a result, gold futures rose to $1,828.60. This move was significant, but the 200-day moving average also passes here, where the precious metal may face resistance.

What to expect next for the gold price?

The only thing that will lead to an increase in the price of gold is a further prolonged decline in the actual purchasing power of the US Dollar.

  • If you think the Dollar collapse is imminent and runaway inflation is just around the corner, buy gold.  But don’t expect to get rich if you’re right.  At best, everything, you will maintain the current level of purchasing power of the wealth that you already have.
  • If we are ahead of us with a period of relative calm and economic prosperity with moderate inflationary effects, then the price of gold could fall for many years.
  • A financial collapse with loan defaults is likely to lead to prolonged economic depression and deflation.  Deflation will cause the prices of all assets to fall by 60-90 percent or more, including precious metal.

Gold price technical forecast: Next levels to watch

The precious metal may move towards the $ 1,860 mark. This is the top of a gap that has yet to be filled. If gold fills the gap, it is likely to head towards the $ 1.915 level.

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In case of further breakdown, the precious metal could rise much higher, possibly to the previous high of $2,100. On the other hand, if the gold rate breaks the lower boundary of the trading session candle, it will drop to the $1750 line. This area has proven its importance more than once, so after breaking it, the next stop will be a “double bottom” around $1675. A break below will send the asset towards $1500.

Gold price on daily chart
Gold price on daily chart

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