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  • Gold price wobbles under the $1800 mark, found little traction amid better risk mode that pressed the Greenback.
  • The rise in yields may cap the gains in gold.
  • Powell’s speech and Jackson Hole are the key events of the week that may change the directional bias of the gold.

The gold price outlook is neutral to bullish for now as the US dollar retraces a little on Monday amid improved risk sentiment.

With risk sentiment improving, gold is heading toward $1,800 after a sharp rise in the Asian session amid widespread dollar declines. In recent months, Asian stocks have become more resilient and are gaining the confidence of their American counterparts, allaying the fears of the Delta Covid tribes.

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However, gold’s upward trend could be limited by the risk-related rise in Treasury yields. Nevertheless, Jerome Powell’s confirmation by Janet Yellen as Fed chairman will ease market uncertainty and promote a more positive outlook.

In the meantime, investors remain hopeful ahead of the Fed’s three-day virtual symposium, which begins on Thursday. PMI figures from the Eurozone and the US may shed light on how strong the global recovery is amid the delta crisis ahead of the Fed meeting. Gold prices will therefore continue to be influenced by risk trends and dollar dynamics.

Powell’s opening remarks on August 27 will discuss his preferred inflation target, Core Personal Consumption Spending, shortly after the Fed releases it.

Stronger-than-expected readings would help the US dollar outperform its rivals and cap gold prices since it would indicate a possible restrictive change in the Fed’s outlook.

Later that day, Powell will probably have to rewrite his script due to an unexpected surprise.

Fed officials will also likely keep a tight lid on hysteria given reaction to recent minutes showing that it is largely expected they will cut monthly bond purchases in late summer.

Markets are reminded not to consider tapering as a reason for future rate increases through the reluctant rhetoric of officials.

The Fed will release new macroeconomic forecasts by September, so Powell may be reluctant to chair the meeting in September.

As a result, the Fed should send a message to the markets that it will monitor how the economy, particularly the labor market, will react to the spread of the Covid Delta.

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Gold price technical outlook: Price locked in 50 and 200 SMAs

Gold price 4-hour chart outlook
Gold price 4-hour chart outlook

The gold price remains sandwiched between the 50-period and 200-period SMAs on the 4-hour chart. The price is consolidating under the $1800 mark. Only a clear breakout in either direction can suggest the trend bias for gold. The volume is below the average at the moment. It shows as if the market participants are out of the gold trading for now.

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