Gold prices elevated on trade war and global growth risks

  • The Gold price rallied from a low of $1,460 and the 200-hour moving average overnight to a month high of $1,481.74.
  • Trade wars remain a risk for risk which is feeding a bullish case into precious metals again.
  • The outlook for the global economic backdrop could take a knock today on Aussie GDP. 

The prices of gold were rising to their best levels in around a month overnight following various headlines over the last few days which leaves the US and Chinese ‘phase-one’ deal on the brink of collapse, critically and potentially failing to prevent the 15th December fresh tariffs kicking in on Chinese imports. Such an eventuality put trade deals at a serious impasse once again. 

In early Asia, the price of the yellow metal is trading around $1,476 and off its overnight highs of $1,481.74 where the price rallied from a low of $1,460 and the 200-hour moving average. The bomb was dropped on markets when President Donald Trump said it might be preferable to hold off on completing a long-awaited US-China trade deal until after the November 2020 presidential election.

Key global economic data on the horizon that could benefit gold

Meanwhile, and for the day ahead, we will be looking to global economic data, especially in light of the potential for serious ramification to global growth in 2020 should the US and China be unable to find a common ground ad secure a trade deal once and for all. 

Australian Q3 GDP Preview: Data could cement further rate cuts from RBA and weigh on AUD

We will see Chinese Caixin Services PMI and Australia’s Gross Domestic Product for Q3. For the Aussie GDP, expectations are not pointing towards a bullish outcome and could be a catalyst in global markets to put on the breaks once again, which should b a favourable outcome for precious metals. Australia’s GDP figures are forecast to show a small slowing in growth from last quarter, with growth printing at 0.3% QoQ and annual growth slowing to 1.5% YoY. For Caixin Services PMI (Nov), expectations are for a drastic improvement from the 51.1 prior to 52.7, an increase in line with prior data where the nation’s manufacturing industry picked up – a welcomed, yet, small positive for risk appetite against an otherwise gloomy backdrop.  

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