The gold price would have to absorb all the increase in the money created, and rise considerably if no other bubble can appear, analysts at Natixis brief.
Key quotes
“After the subprime crisis, the rise in bond prices absorbed much of the liquidity created. But this is not possible this time around, as long-term interest rates cannot fall.”
“It is difficult to imagine a significant rise in share prices currently as the rise in the equity risk premium caused by the rise in risk aversion is not offset by a fall in long-term interest rates.”
“Given the decline in global GDP, which is set to last, commodity prices will be lower than before the crisis.”
“There remains the possibility of a bubble in residential real estate prices, but this asset class will be affected by household deleveraging caused by the rise in risk aversion.”
“Only a rise in prices of safe-haven assets, such as gold, would then remain to balance the increase in the money supply.”
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