Goldman Sachs lowers 2020 US oil growth forecast

Goldman Sachs has revised lower the forecast for US oil growth for  2020 by 300,000 barrels per day to 700,000 barrels per day, citing lower shale activity and a possible uptick in the decline rates in oil fields as reasons behind the downward revision.  

Overall US oil output  will grow by 1.1 million barrels per day this year and by 700,000 barrels per day in 2020, having risen by 1.7 million barrels per day in 2018, according to Goldman Sachs’ forecast.  

The Permian output is seen declining to 600,000 barrels per day in 2020, and then 500,000 barrels per day in both 2021 and 2022. Even so, Goldman Sachs believes the Permian output will account for 116% of all non-OPEC oil output growth as oil production of non-OPEC countries except the US is forecast to fall by 800,000 barrels per day.  

The brokerage also shaved its 2020 outlook for global oil demand growth to 1.3 million barrels per day from 1.4 million barrels per day previously.

So far, Goldman Sachs’ forecast has not had a notable impact on prices. WTI and Brent are currently trading at $59.42 and $51.14, respectively, representing marginal losses on the day.  

Both benchmarks are stuck in a narrowing price range since Oct. 11.