Analysts at JP Morgan highlight seven key risks, in its latest outlook report, as we head towards the second half of this year.
7 key risks:
- “Trade conflicts become an economically-significant trade war;
- US politics becomes even more complicated (Mueller investigation, mid-term elections);
- US core PCE inflation overshoots 2%, triggering faster Fed tightening;
- OPEC-Russia relaxation of oil accord becomes disorderly;
- Italy over eases fiscal policy and courts a funding crisis;
- US’s strike-first-negotiate-later approach to diplomacy brings military entanglement in South China Sea, Korea, Iran or Syria;
- Liquidity risk turns a minor macro event into a major financial one.”
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