Hard Brexit fears ease as UK PM Johnson’s hopes rise – Reuters poll

According to the economists surveyed by Reuters lately, the odds chances of a no-deal Brexit haven fallen on increased expectations of a UK PM Johnson’s Dec. 12 election win.

The election victory is likely to allow Johnson to secure the backing in parliament, which is required to get his new Withdrawal Agreement passed.

Key Findings:

“The median probability of a disorderly Brexit, where no deal is agreed, dropped to 20% in the Nov. 8-12 Reuters poll of economists from 30% in October, the lowest since a poll taken in May soon after the EU granted another delay to Britain’s departure.

The economy will barely expand in the fourth quarter, growing just 0.2%. Growth is then forecast to accelerate to 0.3%-0.4% per quarter until the middle of 2021.

In 2019, the economy will expand 1.2% but growth will slow to 1.0% next year, the wider poll of almost 70 economists found.

With a no-deal Brexit less likely, the chances of a recession also fell. They were pegged at 25% for a recession in the next 12 months, down from 30% previously, and 30% for one in the next two years, reduced from 35%.

According to median forecasts, the Bank Rate will sit at its current 0.75% through to the second half of 2021 when the Monetary Policy Committee will add 25 basis points.

Although more than a handful of economists polled by Reuters have a cut pencilled into their forecasts.”